Military history

APPENDIX

THE INVISIBLE ARMIES DATABASE

This database of insurgencies since 1775 is designed to supplement the historical narrative. It draws on existing databases, but it is designed to be more wide-ranging, more detailed, and more accurate than any previous compendium.

Outcomes are coded as 0 (an insurgent victory), 1 (a draw), 2 (a victory for the regulars), or 3 (ongoing). A coding of 2 is used even if the incumbent makes some political concessions and even if the insurgent group is not completely destroyed militarily. For example the British defeated the Provisional IRA in 1998 even though the Good Friday Accord gave the republicans representation in government. The IRA did not, however, achieve its goal of unification with Ireland. A 1 is coded when there is no clear-cut winner and the conflict ends in a negotiation in which both sides make significant concessions. For instance, EOKA was said to have gotten a draw rather than a victory in Cyprus because it forced the British out (save for two air bases) but did not unify Cyprus with Greece.

Many databases (see, e.g., Lyall and Wilson, “Rage”) include only conflicts that pass a certain threshold, such as inflicting over 1,000 battle deaths. This excludes groups such as the Ku Klux Klan and the Baader-Meinhof Gang, and produces bias in favor of insurgents—just as a study of start-up companies would be biased in favor of entrepreneurs if it were limited to only those firms that achieved a certain revenue threshold or stock price. Most start-ups, like most insurgent groups, never get very far, and this fact needs to be recorded. Therefore this database attempts to include all significant insurgent movements since 1775. What does significant mean? That they caused some deaths and drew some attention from contemporaries and historians. Some of these groups may seem insignificant, but the same could have been said about the Chinese Communist Party when it was founded by thirteen delegates in Shanghai in 1921. Purely criminal enterprises such as the drug gangs of Mexico or the pirates of Somalia have been excluded.

There are two separate summaries of results: one that includes only resolved insurgencies and another that counts ongoing insurgencies as an incumbent victory. Most other databases exclude ongoing insurgencies altogether, but given that some guerrilla and terrorist groups have been struggling and failing for decades (e.g., FARC and the Kachin separatists), not counting them at all can give a skewed impression of insurgent prospects.

In a number of wars the insurgents prevailed only because of the intervention of outside forces. In conflicts such as the Greek War of Independence in the 1820s and the Cuban War of Independence in the 1890s, where the insurgents did much to spur that outside intervention, the outcome is scored as a 0. In other conflicts, such as most of the resistance fronts of World War II, the insurgents had little discernible impact on the intervention by outside powers, and therefore the outcome is recorded as a 1.

REGULARS

INSURGENTS

START

END

DURATION (days)

DURATION (years)

OUTCOME

UK

American Colonies

4/19/1775

9/3/1783

3059

8.381

0

USA

Cherokee Indians

5/1776

6/1794

6605

18.096

2

Dutch/Boers

Xhosa

12/1779

7/1781

578

1.584

1

USA

Northwest Indians

11/1785

8/3/1795

3562

9.759

2

Russia

Chechnya (Sheikh Mansur)

7/1785

6/1791

2161

5.921

2

UK

Australian Aborigines

5/29/1788

2/1869

29467

80.732

2

France

Haitians

8/21/1791

1/1/1804

4515

12.370

0

France

Catholics and Royalists in the Vendée

3/1793

1/1800

2497

6.841

2

Russia

Poles

4/17/1794

4/19/1794

2

0.005

2

USA

Whiskey Rebellion

7/1794

10/1794

92

0.252

2

UK

Irish

5/23/1798

9/8/1798

108

0.296

2

Russia

Georgia

9/1802

9/1841

14245

39.027

2

UK

Irish

7/23/1803

7/23/1803

1

0.003

2

UK

Kingdom of Kandy (Sri Lanka)

1/31/1803

10/30/1818

5751

15.756

2

Ottoman

Serbs

1/1804

10/3/1813

3563

9.762

2

UK

Irish in Australia

3/4/1804

3/4/1804

1

0.003

2

UK

Spanish Colonists (Invasion of Rio de la Plata)

6/1806

7/1807

395

1.082

0

France

Calabria (Italy)

3/1806

3/1811

1826

5.003

2

Haiti

General Petion (Civil War)

10/17/1806

10/8/1820

5105

13.986

0

Ottoman

Janissaries

1807

1808

ND

1.000

2

France

Spanish Guerrillas (Peninsular War)

5/2/1808

4/17/1814

2176

5.962

0

UK

Australia (Rum Rebellion)

1/26/1808

1/1/1810

706

1.934

2

Spain

Bolivia

7/16/1809

4/1/1825

5738

15.721

0

Spain

Ecuador

8/10/1809

5/22/1822

4668

12.789

0

France/Bavaria

Tyrol (Austria)

4/1809

2/1810

306

0.838

2

Spain

Mexico

9/16/1810

9/27/1821

4029

11.038

0

Spain

Chile

9/18/1810

1/15/1826

5598

15.337

0

Spain

Argentina

5/18/1810

4/5/1818

2879

7.888

0

USA

Tecumseh/Shawnee Indians

10/1809

11/7/1811

767

2.101

2

Spain/Portugal

Uruguay

5/18/1811

7/1821

3697

10.129

0

Spain

Peru

6/1811

12/1824

4932

13.512

0

Spain

Venezuela

7/5/1811

10/1823

4471

12.249

0

France

Russian Partisans

6/1812

12/8/1812

190

0.521

0

USA

Creek Indians

7/1813

11/7/1814

494

1.353

2

Ottoman

Serbia

4/1815

11/1817

945

2.589

2

Russia

Caucasus (Shamil et al.)

c. 1817

c. 1864

ND

47.000

2

USA

Seminole (First War)

2/1817

5/28/1818

481

1.318

2

UK

Pindaris

11/6/1817

6/3/1818

210

0.575

2

France/Spain

Spanish Carlists

12/1/1821

4/6/1823

492

1.348

2

Ottoman

Greece

3/25/1821

4/25/1828

2588

7.090

0

Portugal

Avilez Rebellion/Brazil

9/1821

8/29/1825

1458

3.995

0

Netherlands

Padris (West Sumatra)

1821

1837

ND

16.000

2

UK

Burma

9/24/1823

2/24/1826

884

2.422

2

UK

Ashanti Kingdom (Ghana)

1/20/1824

8/7/1826

930

2.548

1

China

Kashgari Rebels

1825

1828

ND

3.000

2

Mexico

Yaqui & Mayo Tribes

10/25/1825

4/13/1827

535

1.466

2

Netherlands

Prince Diponegoro

7/23/1825

3/28/1830

1710

4.685

2

UK

Bharatpuris

12/1825

1/1826

32

0.088

2

Portugal

Pedro IV/Liberals

7/1/1829

7/5/1834

1831

5.016

2

Russia

Poles

11/29/1830

9/8/1831

283

0.775

2

Ottoman

Syria

10/1/1831

12/27/1832

453

1.241

0

USA

Blackhawk

5/14/1832

8/2/1832

80

0.219

2

Spain

Carlists

7/15/1834

7/15/1840

2193

6.008

2

Brazil

Republican Rebels

1/6/1835

5/1837

846

2.318

2

USA

Seminole

12/28/1835

8/14/1842

2421

6.633

2

UK

Quebec and Ontario

11/6/1837

11/1838

360

0.986

2

Texas

Cherokee

5/1838

3/1839

304

0.833

2

UK

Afghans

10/1/1838

10/12/1842

1472

4.033

0

Uruguay

Colorados and Blancos (Civil War)

3/1838

2/1852

5085

13.932

2

France

Abd al Kadr (Algeria)

11/1/1839

12/23/1847

2974

8.148

2

Ottoman

Bosnians

1841

1841

183

0.501

2

UK

Maoris

6/17/1843

5/1872

10546

28.893

2

UK

Sindhs

2/15/1843

8/1843

167

0.458

2

Haiti

Dominican Republic

2/27/1844

4/21/1849

1880

5.151

0

France

Morocco

8/6/1844

9/10/1844

36

0.099

2

UK

Sikhs

12/13/1845

3/9/1846

87

0.238

2

Habsburg Empire

Krakow

2/15/1846

3/3/1846

16

0.044

2

USA

Navajo

8/1846

1/14/1864

6375

17.466

2

UK

Xhosa

1846

1847

366

1.003

2

USA

Mexican guerrillas (Mexican-American War)

5/12/1846

2/2/1848

632

1.732

2

Spain

Carlists (Second War)

5/15/1847

5/1/1849

718

1.967

2

Mexico

Mayans in Yucatán (Caste War)

8/17/1848

3/4/1855

2390

6.548

2

Habsburg Empire

Hungary

9/9/1848

8/13/1849

338

0.926

2

Kingdom of the Two Sicilies

Sicilian Revolutionaries

1/12/1848

1/27/1848

15

0.041

2

Habsburg Empire

Italian Revolutionaries

3/13/1848

10/31/1848

232

0.636

2

Prussia

Greater Poland

3/1848

5/1848

61

0.167

2

Ottoman

Wallachia

6/1848

9/1848

92

0.252

2

USA

California Indians

9/1850

7/22/1863

4707

12.896

2

UK

Xhosa

1850

1853

1097

3.005

2

China

Taiping Heavenly Kingdom

10/1/1850

7/31/1864

1674

4.586

2

UK

Burma

4/1852

1/1853

276.5

0.758

2

China

Nian Militia

11/1853

8/1868

5387

14.759

2

USA

Sioux

8/19/1854

9/3/1855

380

1.041

2

China

Hakka Clan

1855

1867

ND

12.000

2

UK

Santals (India)

1855

1856

366.5

1.004

2

USA

Yakima

10/6/1855

9/5/1858

1065

2.918

2

USA

Seminole

12/1855

3/1858

821

2.249

2

USA

Kansas (Pro- and Anti-Slavery Forces)

5/21/1856

9/15/1856

117

0.321

2

France

Algeria (Kabylia Region)

1856

1857

366.5

1.004

2

France

Toucouleur Empire

1857

1857

183

0.501

2

UK

Sepoy Mutineers (India)

5/10/1857

4/7/1859

697

1.910

2

USA

John Brown

10/16/1859

10/18/1859

2

0.005

2

China

Miao

10/25/1860

5/1/1872

4206

11.523

2

France

Indochina

8/31/1858

6/5/1862

1375

3.767

2

China

Hui/Chinese Muslims

10/25/1860

12/26/1872

4445

12.178

2

USA

Apache Tribe

12/4/1860

4/7/1864

1220

3.342

2

UK

Maoris

1860

1870

ND

10.000

2

Habsburg Empire

Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia

3/4/1860

3/23/1870

3672

10.060

0

USA

Confederate Bushwhackers

4/12/1861

4/9/1865

1458

3.995

2

USA

Sioux

8/17/1862

7/2/1868

2146

5.879

2

France

Mexico (Revolt against Maximilian)

4/16/1862

2/5/1867

1756

4.811

0

UK

Ashanti Kingdom (Ghana)

1863

1864

ND

1.000

1

Russia

Poland

1/22/1863

4/19/1864

454

1.244

2

Spain

Dominican Republic (Dominican Restoration War)

8/1863

3/1865

578

1.584

0

Russia

Poles

1/1863

5/1864

486

1.332

2

China

Sinkiang

7/1864

7/3/1871

2558

7.008

0

Russia

Central Asian Khanates

9/1864

8/1873

3256

8.921

2

UK

Bhutan

1/1865

11/11/1865

300

0.822

2

USA

KKK/White Supremacists (Reconstruction)

1866

1876

ND

10.000

0

Ottoman

Crete (First War)

5/29/1866

2/22/1867

270

0.740

2

USA

Sioux (Red Cloud’s War)

12/21/1866

11/6/1868

686

1.879

1

UK

Ethiopian Empire

12/1867

4/13/1868

120

0.329

2

Spain

Cuba (Ten Years’ War)

10/10/1868

2/10/1878

3410

9.342

2

UK

Red River Rebellion (Canada)

10/1869

8/24/1870

327

0.896

2

Prussia

Francs-Tireurs (Franco-Prussian War)

7/15/1870

5/10/1871

299

0.819

2

France

Algeria

3/1871

1/1872

307

0.841

2

France

Paris Commune

4/2/1871

5/29/1871

57

0.156

2

USA

Apache

4/1871

6/1873

792

2.170

2

Spain

Carlists

4/20/1872

2/20/1876

1402

3.841

2

USA

Modocs

11/30/1872

5/22/1873

173

0.474

2

France

Tonkin (Indochina)

1873

1885

4384

12.011

2

Netherlands

Aceh

1873

1913

ND

40.000

2

UK

Ashanti Kingdom (Ghana)

1/1873

2/1874

395.5

1.084

2

USA

Comanche, Kiowa, Southern Cheyenne, Arapaho Tribes

6/27/1874

5/8/1875

315

0.863

2

Ottoman

Herzegovina & Bulgaria

6/30/1876

3/1877

244

0.668

0

USA

Apache (Geronimo)

9/1876

9/1886

3652

10.005

2

USA

Sioux (Great Sioux War)

3/17/1876

11/25/1876

253

0.693

2

Russia

Caucasian Imamate

1877

1878

ND

1.000

2

USA

Nez Perce

6/17/1877

10/5/1877

110

0.301

2

Japan

Satsuma

1/29/1877

9/24/1877

239

0.650

2

UK

Afghanistan

11/20/1878

9/2/1880

652

1.786

1

Habsburg Empire

Slav Nationalists

7/13/1878

9/10/1919

15033

41.186

0

USA

Cheyenne

9/13/1878

1/22/1879

131

0.359

2

Argentina

Patagonian Tribes (War of the Desert)

4/6/1879

7/8/1880

459

1.258

2

Russia

People’s Will (Narodnaya Volya)

8/1879

2/1883

1280

3.507

2

UK

Zulu Kingdom

1/11/1879

7/4/1879

175

0.480

2

UK

Boers

12/30/1880

4/5/1881

97

0.266

0

France/Italy/Spain

Anarchists

c. 1880

c. 1939

ND

59.000

2

Britain/Cape Colony

Basotho (Gun War)

9/1880

5/1881

243.5

0.667

0

France

Tunisian Rebels

3/31/1881

4/4/1882

370

1.014

2

UK

Egypt (Arabi)

2/1/1881

9/13/1882

589

1.614

2

Britain

Mahdist Uprising (Sudan)

9/13/1882

12/30/1885

1204

3.299

0

France

Madagascar

6/1/1883

12/17/1885

930

2.548

1

France

Can Vuong (Vietnam)

7/1885

12/12/1888

1260

3.452

2

France

Wassoulou Empire (First Mandingo War)

1885

1886

366

1.003

2

Russia

Afghanistan

3/30/1885

4/1885

17.5

0.048

1

UK

Burma

1885

1886

366

1.003

2

Ottoman

Crete

1888

1889

ND

1.000

2

France

Kingdom of Dahomey (Benin)

1889

1892

1096.5

3.004

2

USA

Sioux (Pine Ridge Campaign/Wounded Knee)

12/29/1890

1/15/1891

17

0.047

2

France

Senegal

1890

1891

366

1.003

2

France

Kingdom of Siam

7/1893

10/1893

92

0.252

2

UK

Ndebele People (First Matabele War)

11/1/1893

1/23/1894

83

0.227

2

Yugoslavia

IMRO

11/1893

Aug-44

18505

50.699

2

Australia

Jandamarra’s War

11/1894

4/1897

882

2.416

2

France

Madagascar

12/12/1894

10/1/1895

293

0.803

0

France

Wassoulou Empire (Second Mandingo War)

1894

1895

ND

1.000

0

Korea

Tonghak Rebels

2/1894

3/1895

393

1.077

2

Netherlands

Lombok (Bali)

1894

1894

183

0.500

2

UK

Ashanti Kingdom (Ghana)

1894

3/14/1905

ND

6.000

2

Spain

Cuba

2/24/1895

4/20/1898

1152

3.156

0

Italy

Ethiopia

12/7/1895

10/21/1896

320

0.877

0

Japan

Taiwanese Rebels

5/29/1895

10/21/1895

146

0.400

2

Brazil

Canudos Rebels

10/1/1896

10/5/1897

369

1.011

2

Spain

Philippines

5/30/1896

5/1/1898

701

1.921

0

Ottoman

Crete

2/1896

2/15/1897

367.5

1.007

0

UK

Ndebele People (Second Matabele War)

3/1896

10/1896

214

0.586

2

Ottoman

Druze Rebels

1896

1896

183.5

0.500

1

UK

Madhist Rebels (Sudan)

9/1896

11/4/1899

1145.5

3.138

2

UK

Pashtun Tribes (Northwest Frontier Campaign)

8/1897

4/1868

243.5

0.667

2

UK

Northern Nigeria

1897

1897

183

0.501

2

UK

Indian Muslims

8/1897

4/1898

243.5

0.667

2

UK

Temne and Mende Tribes (Sierra Leone) (Hut Tax War)

2/1898

5/1895

91.5

0.251

2

USA

Philippines

2/4/1899

7/4/1902

1246

3.414

2

Colombia

Liberal Party (Thousand Days War)

9/1/1899

6/15/1903

1383

3.789

2

UK

Boers

10/11/1899

5/31/1902

963

2.638

2

UK

Somaliland

9/1899

3/5/1905

1998

5.474

2

Foreign Powers in China

Boxer Rebellion (China)

6/17/1900

8/14/1900

59

0.162

2

Bolivia

Acre Rebellion

8/6/1902

3/21/1903

227

0.622

0

Rashidi State

Saudi Rebels (Unification of Saudi Arabia)

Jan-02

9/23/1932

11209

30.710

0

Ottoman

Ilinden/VMRO Rebels

8/2/1903

11/2/1903

92

0.252

2

Germany

Herero (Namibia)

1/12/1904

11/16/1905

674.5

1.848

2

Russia

Socialists/Liberals (1905 Revolution)

1/22/1905

1/1/1906

344

0.942

2

Germany

Maji-Maji (Tanganyika)

Jul-05

Jun-06

335

0.920

2

Russia

Poles

6/21/1905

6/25/1905

4

0.011

2

UK

Zulu Kingdom

Mar-06

Jul-06

123

0.337

2

Spain

Morocco

Jul-09

Oct-09

92

0.252

2

Mexico

Revolutionaries

11/20/1910

5/21/1920

3470

9.507

0

France

Morocco

7/1/1911

3/30/1912

273

0.748

2

China

Republican Rebels

10/11/1911

12/31/1911

81

0.222

1

China

Tibetan Separatists

3/1/1912

4/1/1913

396

1.085

0

USA

Mexico (Occupation of Veracruz)

4/21/1914

11/23/1914

216

0.592

2

UK

Von Lettow-Vorbeck (East Africa)

11/2/1914

11/25/1918

1484

4.066

1

USA/Haiti

Cacos

7/3/1915

8/14/1934

6982

19.129

2

Ottoman

Arab Revolt

6/5/1916

10/30/1918

877

2.403

0

UK

Easter Rebellion

4/24/1916

5/1/1916

7

0.019

2

France

Morocco

1916

1917

366.5

1.004

2

USA

Dominican Republic

May-16

Sep-24

3045

8.342

1

Russia

White Army (Russian Civil War)

12/9/1917

3/18/1921

1195

3.274

2

China

Tibetans

1/7/1918

Aug-18

222

0.608

0

Russia

Caucasian Imamate

Aug-17

Sep-25

2953

8.090

2

Russia

Revolutionary Insurrectionary Army of Ukraine

1918

1921

ND

3.000

2

Germany

Workers Councils’

1/6/1919

May-19

115

0.315

2

UK

Afghanistan

5/19/1919

8/8/1919

85

0.233

1

UK

IRA (Irish War of Independence)

1/19/1919

12/6/1921

1052

2.882

0

United States

Anarchists

1919

1927

ND

8.000

2

France

Syria

1920

1920

183.5

0.503

1

Italy

The Senussi (Libya)

6/1/1920

7/1/1932

4414.5

12.095

2

UK

Iraq

Jun-20

1921

382.5

1.048

2

Russia

Turkestan (Ibrahim Bek)

11/10/1921

6/30/1931

3519

9.641

2

Spain/France

Rif Rebels

7/18/1921

5/27/1926

1774

4.860

2

Japan

Militarists/Ultra-Nationalist Secret Societies

c. 1921

c. 1937

ND

16.000

0

Ireland

Anti-Treaty IRA

Apr-22

May-23

395

1.082

2

Iraq/UK

Kurds

Jun-22

Jul-24

761

2.085

2

UK

IRA

1923

1969

ND

46.000

2

Germany

Nazis (Beer Hall Putsch)

11/8/1923

11/11/1923

3

0.008

2

Turkey

Sheikh Said’s Rebels (Kurdish)

1924

1925

ND

1.000

2

France

Druze Rebels (Syria)

7/18/1925

6/1/1927

684

1.874

2

USA/Nicaragua

Nicaragua (Sandino)

Jul-27

Jan-33

2011

5.510

2

China

Communists

8/1/1927

7/7/1937

3628

9.940

1

Romania

Iron Guard

6/24/1927

9/4/1940

4821

13.208

0

Mexico

Cristero War

Oct-27

Apr-29

548

1.501

1

Yugoslavia

Croat Nationalists/Ustase

Jun-27

Apr-41

5053

13.844

0

UK

Saya San’s Rebellion(Burma)

Dec-30

Jun-32

548.5

1.503

2

Japan

Chinese guerrillas

9/19/1931

8/14/1945

5078

13.912

1

Peru

Aprista Rebels

7/7/1932

7/17/1932

10

0.027

2

UK/India

Pashtun (NW Frontier Revolt)

1936

1939

ND

3.000

2

UK

Arab Revolt (Palestine)

4/20/1936

5/17/1939

1123

3.077

2

USSR

Finland

11/30/1939

3/12/1940

103

0.282

2

Germany

French Resistance

6/23/1940

8/29/1944

1528

4.186

1

Soviet Union

Chechnya

1940

1944

4

0.011

2

Germany

Soviet Partisans

Jul-41

Jul-44

1096

3.003

0

Germany and Italy

Yugoslavia (Partisans/Chetniks)

May-41

Apr-45

1431

3.921

0

Japan

Philippine Resistance

4/9/1942

8/15/1945

1224

3.353

1

Italy/Germany

Albanian Resistance

Nov-41

Oct-44

1065

2.918

0

Japan

SOE/Malayans

2/15/1942

9/2/1945

1295

3.548

1

Germany

Greek Resistance

5/1/1941

Aug-44

1188

3.255

0

Japan (Burma)

Chindits/OSS/Burmese

2/18/1943

May-45

804

2.203

1

Germany

Warsaw Ghetto Uprising

4/19/1943

5/16/1943

27

0.074

2

Germany

Italian Resistance

9/8/1943

5/2/1945

602

1.649

1

Germany

Warsaw Uprising

8/1/1944

10/2/1944

62

0.170

2

UK

Palestine (Zionists)

2/1/1944

5/14/1948

1564

4.285

0

Greece

Communists

12/3/1944

10/16/1949

1778

4.871

2

Soviet Union

Forest Brothers (Baltic States)

Apr-05

1956

ND

12.000

2

Soviet Union

Ukraine (UPA)

1944

1953

ND

9.000

2

Colombia

Liberal &Communist Parties (“La Violencia”)

9/15/1945

12/31/1966

4856

13.304

1

Netherlands

Indonesia

11/10/1945

10/15/1946

340

0.932

0

China (KMT)

PLA (Communists)

Aug-45

12/7/1949

1589

4.353

0

France

Vietminh (Indochina)

Dec-46

12/29/1954

2950

8.082

0

France

Madagascar

3/29/1947

12/1/1948

613

1.679

2

China

Taiwanese Insurgents

2/28/1947

3/21/1947

21

0.058

2

Burma

Kachin and Karen (KNU)

Aug-48

Ongoing

   

3

UK

MRLA (Malaya)

Feb-48

7/31/1960

4564

12.504

2

Philippines

Huks

9/1/1950

May-54

1338

3.666

2

China

Tibet

Oct-50

Aug-54

1400

3.836

2

Bolivia

MNR

4/8/1952

4/11/1952

3

0.008

0

France

Tunisia

Mar-52

Mar-56

1461

4.003

0

UK

Mau Mau (Kenya)

10/20/1952

1956

1351.5

3.703

2

UK

EOKA (Cyprus)

7/2/1952

8/13/1959

2598

7.118

1

Cuba

26th of July Movement (Castro)

7/26/1953

1/1/1959

1985

5.438

0

Indonesia

Darul Islam

9/20/1953

11/23/1953

64

0.175

2

Laos/USA

Pathet Lao

Apr-53

12/2/1975

8280

22.685

0

France

FLN (Algeria)

11/1/1954

7/1/1962

2799

7.668

0

France

Cameroon

1955

1960

1827.5

5.007

0

India

Naga

Oct-55

Nov-75

7336

20.099

2

United States

White Segregationists

1955

1968

ND

13.000

2

South Vietnam/USA

Vietcong/PAVN

10/26/1955

4/30/1975

7126

19.523

0

Soviet Union

Hungary

10/23/1956

11/30/1956

38

0.104

2

China

Tibet

3/1/1956

3/22/1959

1117

3.060

2

Indonesia

Leftists

12/15/1956

12/31/1960

1478

4.049

2

Spain

Morocco/Sahrawi Rebel (Ifni War)

Nov-57

Dec-57

30

0.082

2

Algeria/France

OAS

5/1/1958

Mar-63

1765

4.836

2

Spain

ETA

Jul-59

10/20/2011

19104

52.340

2

Rwanda/Belgium

Hutus

Nov-59

Sep-61

670

1.836

0

DRC

Katanga

7/11/1960

1/15/1963

918

2.515

2

Namibia

SWAPO

4/19/1960

3/21/1990

10928

29.940

0

Guatemala

EGP, ORPA, FAR, PGT, URNG

Nov-60

Dec-96

13179

36.107

2

South Africa

ANC, PAC, Azapo

12/16/1961

8/1/1990

10455

28.644

0

Venezuela

Revolutionary Left Movement, FALN

Apr-60

Dec-63

1339

3.668

2

Ethiopia

Eritrean Separatists

9/1/1961

5/24/1993

11588

31.748

0

Iraq

Kurds

9/16/1961

11/22/1963

798

2.186

2

Nicaragua

Sandinistas

Jul-61

7/19/1979

6592

18.060

0

Portugal

Angola

2/3/1961

11/11/1975

5394

14.778

0

Algeria

CNDR/FFS(Kabylie)

Sep-63

Apr-65

550

1.507

2

Oman/UK

Dhofar

1962

1983

ND

21.000

2

Portugal

Guinea Bissau

Dec-62

Dec-74

4384

12.011

0

Portugal

Mozambique

Jun-62

6/25/1975

4772

13.074

0

Yemen

Yemeni Republicans (North Yemen Civil War)

11/15/1962

9/3/1969

2485

6.808

0

Canada

Front de Libération du Québec

Mar-63

Jan-71

2863

7.844

2

Uruguay

Tupamaros

7/31/1963

Jun-73

3593

9.844

2

Sudan

Anya Nya

10/1/1963

2/28/1972

3073

8.419

1

UK/Malaya

Borneo

Jan-63

Aug-66

1308

3.584

2

Colombia

FARC, ELN, EPL, M-19

1963

Ongoing

   

3

UK

FLOSY/NLF (Aden)

Dec-63

11/30/1967

1460

4.000

0

Kenya

NFDLM (Shifta War)

Dec-63

1/31/1968

1522

4.170

2

DRC

Eastern Congo (Orientale, Nord-Kivu, Sud-Kivu, Katanga)

9/1/1964

11/5/1967

1160

3.178

2

Rhodesia

ZANU-PF (Bush War)

Jul-64

Dec-79

5631

15.427

0

Peru

Revolutionary Left Movement

6/9/1965

10/23/1965

136

0.373

2

Thailand

Communist Party

Nov-65

Jan-83

6270

17.178

2

Israel

PLO

1965

Ongoing

   

3

Chad

FROLINAT

Nov-65

Aug-79

5041

13.811

0

Chile

MIR

1965

Ongoing

   

3

Dominican Republic

Constitutionalists

4/24/1965

6/3/1966

405

1.110

2

Iran

Mujaheedin e Khalq

1965

Ongoing

   

3

India

Mizo National Front

1966

Ongoing

   

3

Northern Ireland

Ulster Volunteer Force/Loyalist Volunteer Force

May-66

May-07

14975

41.027

1

Nigeria

Biafra

7/6/1967

1/12/1970

921

2.523

2

India

Naxalites

1967

Ongoing

   

3

Cambodia

Khmer Rouge

Jan-68

4/16/1975

2662

7.293

0

Brazil

ALN, VPR

Feb-68

Sep-71

1308

3.584

2

Philippines

MNLF

3/18/1968

9/2/1996

10395

28.479

2

Israel

PFLP-General Command

1968

Ongoing

   

3

USA

Weathermen

6/20/1969

Nov-77

3056

8.373

2

UK

Provisional IRA

Dec-69

Jul-97

10074

27.600

2

Philippines

Communist Party of the Philippines/New People’s Army

1969

Ongoing

   

3

Japan

Japanese Red Army

8/29/1969

4/14/2000

11186

30.647

2

Germany

Red Army Faction (Baader-Meinhof)

6/5/1970

Mar-98

10131

27.756

2

Italy

Red Brigades

Aug-70

Dec-88

6697

18.348

2

Jordan

PLO

9/17/1970

9/24/1970

8

0.022

2

Pakistan

Bangladesh

3/26/1971

12/17/1971

266

0.729

0

Sri Lanka

JVP

4/5/1971

6/9/1971

65

0.178

2

Burundi

Hutu Rebels

4/29/1972

7/31/1972

93

0.255

2

Pakistan

Baluchi Seperatists

1973

Ongoing

   

3

Egypt

Gama’a al-Islamiyya

1973

Ongoing

   

3

USA

Symbionese Liberation Army

Mar-73

9/18/1975

931

2.551

2

Bangladesh

Bangladesh-Shanti Bahini

1/7/1973

12/2/1997

9095

24.918

1

Ethiopia

Anti-Derg Militias

Nov-74

May-91

6025

16.507

0

Israel/Jordan

Abu Nidal Organization

1974

Ongoing

   

3

Indonesia

Fretilin

9/11/1974

8/30/1999

9119

24.984

1

Angola

UNITA

8/9/1975

8/2/2002

9855

27.000

2

Lebanon

Sunni, Shia, and Christian militias (Civil War)

4/13/1975

10/13/1990

5662

15.512

1

Angola

Cabinda Province

1975

Ongoing

   

3

Indonesia

East Timor

11/29/1975

8/30/1999

8675

23.767

0

Greece

Revolutionary Organization 17 November

12/23/1975

9/5/2002

9753

26.721

2

Morocco

Polisario

2/27/1976

Sep-91

5665

15.521

2

Indonesia

GAM (Aceh)

12/4/1976

Jan-05

10255

28.096

2

Argentina

FAR, ERP/MTP (“Dirty War”)

3/25/1976

7/16/1982

2304

6.312

1

Mozambique

RENAMO

Dec-76

10/4/1992

5786

15.852

2

Syria

Muslim Brotherhood

Jul-76

2/28/1982

2068

5.666

2

DRC

FLNC

3/8/1977

5/31/1977

84

0.230

2

Philippines

MILF

1977

Ongoing

   

3

Turkey

Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party

1978

Ongoing

   

3

Cambodia

FUNCINPEC, KPNLAF

Mar-79

May-93

5175

14.178

1

Iran

Kurdish Democratic Party Iran

1979

Ongoing

   

3

France

Action Directe

May-79

2/21/1987

2853

7.816

2

Iraq

Kurdish Peshmerga

10/1/1980

9/6/1988

2897

7.937

2

Nigeria

Maitatsine Sect (Kano)

Apr-80

Apr-85

1826

5.003

2

Peru

Shining Path, MRTA

1980

Ongoing

   

3

Soviet Union

Afghanistan

Jan-80

2/15/1989

3333

9.132

0

El Salvador

FMLN

10/10/1980

Jan-92

4100

11.233

2

Somalia

Anti-Barre Clans (SSDF, SNM, Isaaqs)

Jul-80

1/29/1991

3864

10.586

0

Nicaragua

Contras

Aug-81

Apr-90

3165

8.671

1

Uganda

NRA

Jan-81

1/19/1986

1844

5.052

0

Israel

Hezbollah (Southern Lebanon)

6/4/1982

5/25/2000

6565

17.986

0

Senegal

MFDC

Dec-82

Dec-04

8036

22.016

2

Portugal

Forças Populares 25 de Abril

12/6/1983

9/24/1984

293

0.803

2

Sri Lanka

Tamil Tigers

Jul-83

May-09

9436

25.852

2

Sudan

SPLM

Aug-83

Jan-05

7824

21.436

0

Turkey

PKK

1983

Ongoing

   

3

India

Sikhs

1984

Ongoing

   

3

Japan

Aum Shinrikyo

1984

Ongoing

   

3

South Yemen

Civil War

1/13/1986

1/24/1986

11

0.030

2

Uganda/DRC/Sudan

Lord’s Resistance Army

1986

Ongoing

   

3

Uganda

ADF/NALU

1986

2000

ND

14.000

2

Uganda

UPA/UFM

1986

1993

ND

7.000

2

Israel

Hamas

1987

Ongoing

   

3

Israel

Palestinian Intifada

Dec-87

9/13/1993

2113

5.789

1

United States/Allies

Al Qaeda

1988

Ongoing

   

3

Burundi

Hutu Rebels

8/18/1988

8/22/1988

4

0.011

2

India

Kashmiri Separatists

1989

Ongoing

   

3

Papua New Guinea

Bougainville Revolutionary Army

Dec-88

Apr-98

3408

9.337

0

India

Lashkar e Taiba

1989

Ongoing

   

3

Pakistan/Kashmir

Harakat ul-Mujahidin

1989

Ongoing

   

3

Mali

Tuareg Insurgents

Jun-90

Jul-95

1856

5.085

1

USA

Panama (Operation Just Cause)

12/20/1989

12/24/1989

4

0.011

2

Afghanistan (Najibullah)

Mujahideen

2/19/1989

4/15/1992

1151

3.153

0

Liberia

NPFL

12/24/1989

11/22/1996

2525

6.918

1

Moldova

Dniestr Separatists

Sep-90

7/21/1992

689

1.888

0

Rwanda

RPF

10/1/90

7/18/94

1386

3.797

0

Israel

Kahane Chai

1990

Ongoing

   

3

Morocco

Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group

1990

Ongoing

   

3

Croatia

Republic of Serbian Krajina

Apr-90

Aug-95

1948

5.337

2

Djibouti

FRUD (Afar Insurgents)

Aug-91

5/12/2001

3572

9.786

1

Iraq

Shiiites and Kurds

3/1/1991

3/31/1991

30

0.082

2

Uzbekistan

Islamist Movement of Uzbekistan

1991

Ongoing

   

3

Philippines

Abu Sayyaf

1991

Ongoing

   

3

Sierra Leone

RUF, AFRC

Mar-91

Jan-02

3959

10.847

2

Somalia

Various

1991

Ongoing

   

3

Yugoslavia

Slovenian Nationalists/Separatists

6/27/1991

7/5/1991

10

0.027

0

Nigeria

Niger Delta Rebels

1991

Ongoing

   

3

Lebanon

Asbat al-Ansar

1991

Ongoing

   

3

United States

Patriot Movement

Aug-92

May-01

3195

8.753

2

Algeria

MIA/FIS/AIS, GIA

Jan-92

Feb-02

3684

10.093

2

Azerbaijan

Nagorno-Karabakh

Feb-88

5/16/1994

2296

6.290

1

Bosnia

Republik Srpska (Serbs)

6/6/1992

12/31/1994

938

2.570

1

Georgia

Abkhaz Secessionists

8/14/1992

12/1/1993

474

1.299

0

Tajikistan

UTO

May-92

6/27/1997

1883

5.159

2

Bangladesh

Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami

1992

Ongoing

   

3

Burundi

Civil War

Oct-93

4/12/2005

4211

11.537

0

Indonesia

Jemaah Islamiyah

1993

Ongoing

   

3

Mexico

EZLN

1994

Ongoing

   

3

Afghanistan

Taliban

Aug-94

9/27/1996

788

2.159

0

Central African Republic

MLPC

1994

1997

ND

3.000

2

Afghanistan

Northern Alliance

Nov-96

Dec-01

1856

5.085

0

Chad

MDD, FNT, CSNDP, FARF

10/15/1991

May-98

2390

6.548

1

Russia

Chechnya

12/11/1994

8/31/1996

629

1.723

0

Rwanda

Interahamwe

7/18/1994

Ongoing

   

3

Yemen

South Yemen

2/21/1994

7/7/1994

136

0.373

1

Ireland

Continuity Irish Republican Army

1994

Ongoing

   

3

Mexico

Zapatista Army of National Liberation

1994

Ongoing

   

3

Libya

Libyan Islamic Fighting Group

1995

Ongoing

   

3

Serbia

KLA

Feb-96

6/10/1999

1225

3.356

0

Pakistan

Lashkar-e-Jhangvi

1996

Ongoing

   

3

Nepal

CPN

2/13/1996

4/26/2006

3725

10.205

1

DRC

Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire

Oct-96

May-97

212

0.581

0

China

Uighurs

1996

Ongoing

   

3

Congo

Cobra and Ninja Rebels

Jun-97

Dec-99

913

2.501

2

Colombia

United Self-Defense Forces of Columbia

Apr-97

4/12/2006

3298

9.036

2

Kenya/Tanzania

Al Qaeda in East Africa

1998

Ongoing

   

3

DRC

Eastern Congo Militias (Second Congo War & Aftermath)

1998

Ongoing

   

3

Guinea Bissau

Military Junta

6/7/1998

5/10/1999

337

0.923

0

Algeria

GSPC/Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

1998

Ongoing

   

3

Russia

Chechnya/North Caucasus

1999

Ongoing

   

3

Liberia

LURD, MODEL

4/25/1999

8/11/2003

1569

4.299

0

Pakistan

Jaish-e-Mohammed

2000

Ongoing

   

3

Israel

Palestinians (Second Intifada)

9/28/2000

2/8/2005

1594

4.367

2

Saudi Arabia/Yemen

Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia & Islamic Jihad of Yemen/AQAP

2000

Ongoing

   

3

USA/Afghanistan

Taliban/Haqqani Network/Hizb-I Islami Gulbuddin

2001

Ongoing

   

3

USA/Iraq/Western Europe

Ansar al-Islam

2001

Ongoing

   

3

Ivory Coast

Forces Nouvelles

2002

Ongoing

   

3

Pakistan

Tehrik-i-Taliban

2002

Ongoing

   

3

Sudan/Chad

Darfuri Rebels

2003

Ongoing

   

3

Iraq

AQI/JAM/Kata’ib Hizballah/Baathist Nationalists

2003

Ongoing

   

3

Iran

PRMI/Jundallah (Baluch)

2003

Ongoing

   

3

Greece

Revolutionary Struggle

2003

Ongoing

   

3

Thailand

South Thailand rebels

2004

Ongoing

   

3

Yemen/KSA

Houthi Rebels

2004

Ongoing

   

3

Uzbekistan

Islamic Jihad Union

2004

Ongoing

   

3

Israel

Hezbollah (Second Lebanon War)

7/12/2006

8/14/2006

33

0.090

1

Mali

Tuareg Insurgents

5/2007

2/2009

642

1.759

1

Pakistan

Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan

2007

Ongoing

   

3

Libya

Transitional National Council

2/15/2011

10/23/2011

250

0.685

0

Syria

Free Syrian Army

2011

Ongoing

   

3

Mali

Tuareg/Ansar-al-Dine

2012

Ongoing

   

3

SUMMARY OF DATABASE

RESOLVED INSURGENCIES

       

Insurgent Victories

96 (25.20%)

             

Draws/Compromises

42 (11.02%)

             

Incumbent Victories

243 (63.78%)

             

COUNTING 61 ONGOING CONFLICTS AS INCUMBENT VICTORIES

       

Insurgent Victories

96 (21.72%)

             

Draws/Compromises

42 (9.50%)

             

Incumbent Victories

304 (68.78%)

             

BY TIME PERIOD

INSURGENT VICTORIES

DRAWS

INCUMBENT VICTORIES

         

Pre-1945

50 (20.49%)

21 (8.61%)

173 (70.90%)

         

Post-1945 (resolved)

46 (39.60%)

21 (15.33%)

70 (51.09%)

         

DURATION (RESOLVED) (YEARS)

       

Average Duration Pre-1945

5.489

             

Average Duration Post-1945

9.677

             

Average Duration (Overall)

6.97

             

BY LENGTH OF INSURGENCY

TOTAL RESOLVED

INCUMBENT VICTORIES

DRAWS

INSURGENT VICTORIES

       

Insurgencies <10 Years

293

196 (66.89%)

34 (11.60%)

63 (21.50%)

       

Insurgencies >20 Years

32

21 (65.63%)

3 (9.38%)

8 (25.00%)

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